Prepared for Monday's open (20 Jul 2026). MCX is closed today. All MCX prices are Friday's close. COMEX spot is live (weekend trading active).
| Instrument | Price | Change (vs prev close) | Source / Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug fut) | ₹141,006/10g | Friday close | mcxlive.org (Jul 17) |
| MCX Silver (Sep fut) | ₹216,449/kg | Friday close | mcxlive.org (Jul 17) |
| COMEX Gold (Aug fut) | $4,018.80 | +$26.70 (+0.67%) | Yahoo Finance; range $3,965.60–$4,028.50 (Jul 18 live) |
| COMEX Silver (Sep fut) | $56.326 | +$0.139 (+0.25%) | Yahoo Finance; range $55.10–$56.47 (Jul 18 live) |
| Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,019.30 | — | gold-api.com (Jul 18 05:31 UTC) |
| Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | $56.08 | — | gold-api.com (Jul 18 05:31 UTC) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (COMEX) | ~71.4 | ($4,019 ÷ $56.26) | Calculated |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (MCX parity) | 71.3 | (₹124,385 ÷ ₹1,745.36/g) | CSV data (Jul 17) |
| USD/INR | 96.28 | prev close 96.335 | Yahoo Finance (Jul 18 live) |
| DXY | 100.755 | prev close 100.765 | Yahoo Finance (Jul 18 live) |
Gold INR parity → MCX estimate: ₹124,576/10g (ex-duty, from gold-api.com) × 1.13 duty factor ≈ ₹140,771 — very close to the actual MCX close of ₹141,006. ✅
Key observation: COMEX gold rallied +$26.70 (+0.67%) in weekend trading, recovering from Friday's intraday low of $3,965.60. Silver is holding the $55.10–$56.47 range but remains under pressure.
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish (short-term bounce); Confidence: 60/100 - Bullish: CPI dropped to 3.5% (from 4.2%), cooling inflation → Fed rate hike bets scaled back; DXY at 100.75, weak dollar supports gold - Bearish: US-Iran war escalation drives oil prices → hawkish Fed implications; gold still in -21% drawdown from Jan ATH - Key tension: Dovish CPI data vs. hawkish geopolitical implications creating range-bound choppiness
| Story | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US June CPI at 3.5% (prior 4.2%) — cooler than expected, marks biggest disinflation since 2024 | Dovish — markets scale back July rate hike bets; now fully pricing a hike only by December | Benzinga, Bloomberg (Jul 15–16) |
| Fed meeting July 28–29 — next policy decision in 10 days | Key event risk — markets pricing no hike, but Warsh Fed has been hawkish | Multiple sources |
| US-Iran conflict escalation — new US strikes on Iranian targets, Iran missile strikes on allies | Paradoxically bearish for gold — oil price surge forces Fed to stay hawkish, raising real yields | RoboForex, AP (Jul 17) |
| China banks halt paper gold trading — ICBC, Postal Savings Bank, Ping An, Guangfa Bank to stop leveraged precious metals trading from Jul 24 | Bullish — could force retail flow into physical, squeeze COMEX paper shorts | YouTube/Kitco (Jul 15–16) |
| COMEX gold inventory at 14.76 MOz — lowest since Oct 2024 | Bullish structural — physical delivery pressure rising | Times of India, metalcharts.org (Jul 14) |
| Central bank buying: 244t in Q1, projected 755t for 2026 (vs pre-2022 avg 400–500t) | Bullish long-term — structural demand floor | Advantage Gold, WGC (Jul 15) |
| J.P. Morgan forecast: $6,000/oz gold by end-2026, $6,300 possible for 2027 | Bullish long-term — institutional conviction | J.P. Morgan Research (Jul 2026) |
| Gold nosedived to Nov '25 levels on Friday, hit $3,965.60 intraday | Bearish near-term — but recovered +1.3% to $4,018 | Yahoo Finance (Jul 17) |
| India wedding season demand — ongoing, supports domestic prices | Mildly bullish for MCX premium | GoodReturns, Livemint |
The US CPI print (3.5% vs 4.2% prior) was the most dovish data point in months, driving the dollar lower (DXY 100.75) and providing a floor under gold. However, the US-Iran war is pushing oil prices higher, which complicates the Fed's calculus — higher energy prices feed into inflation, making the Fed reluctant to cut or even pause. This tug-of-war is why gold is range-bound: the CPI bounce was capped around $4,028 before retreating.
Weekend note: Gold has recovered $26 from Friday's close in weekend trading, suggesting buyers are stepping in at $3,960–$4,000. The $4,000 psychological level is being tested as support.
Gold (INR parity, ex-duty): - ATH: ₹157,381 (29 Jan 2026) → Current: ₹124,385 → Drawdown: -21.0% - YoY change: +34.8% (from ₹92,254 in Jul 2025) - 52-week range: ₹79,647 – ₹157,381 - Lower-highs cascade: ₹157,381 (Jan) → ₹147,288 (Apr) → ₹132,344 (Jun) → ₹127,415 (Jul 7) — structural downtrend confirmed - SMA analysis (INR parity): Price ₹124,385 is: - -0.4% below SMA20 (₹124,833) — barely, just broke the short-term MA - -5.6% below SMA50 (₹131,773) — medium-term trend broken - -6.6% below SMA200 (₹133,114) — multi-year uptrend under threat - Interpretation: The uneven breakdown (SMA20 just caught up, SMA50/200 still far above) suggests the selloff is accelerated/recent. The pattern is consistent with distribution, not basing.
Silver (INR parity, ex-duty): - ATH: ₹338,545 (26 Jan 2026) → Current: ₹174,536 → Drawdown: -48.4% - YoY change: +66.0% (from ₹105,153 in Jul 2025) - SMA analysis: -4.2% below SMA20, -16.6% below SMA50, -16.3% below SMA200 — deeply entrenched bear trend - Silver has crashed nearly 50% from its January peak. The -16.6% gap below SMA50 is extreme.
MCX Gold (Aug fut): ₹141,006 - 1-Day MAs: SMA20=₹143,945 / SMA50=₹148,681 / SMA100=₹151,387 — price below ALL daily MAs - 1-Hour MAs: SMA20=₹140,497 / SMA50=₹140,926 / SMA100=₹141,162 — price is right at the 1-hour MAs, indicating short-term attempted recovery - Key observation: Gold bounced off the 5-Min SMA100 (₹140,607) at close — marginal buying interest
MCX Silver (Sep fut): ₹216,449 - 1-Day MAs: SMA20=₹226,339 / SMA50=₹237,995 / SMA100=₹247,066 — deeply bearish, -4.4% below SMA20 - 1-Hour MAs: SMA20=₹215,647 / SMA50=₹217,540 / SMA100=₹219,205 — price at SMA20, trying to stabilize - Even more oversold than gold — silver's correction is far more severe
| Metal | Support | Resistance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold | $3,962 / $3,920 / $3,800 | $4,028 / $4,100 / $4,200 | FXEmpire, Yahoo range |
| MCX Gold | ₹139,800 / ₹138,500 / ₹136,000 | ₹142,000 / ₹143,945 (SMA20) / ₹145,000 | mcxlive.org 1-hour MAs |
| COMEX Silver | $55.10 / $54.00 / $52.50 | $57.15 / $58.00 / $60.00 | FXEmpire, Yahoo range |
| MCX Silver | ₹210,000 / ₹207,000 / ₹200,000 | ₹220,000 / ₹226,339 (SMA20) / ₹230,000 | mcxlive.org 1-hour MAs |
Given the weekend setup (COMEX gold up +0.67% from Friday's close, weak DXY at 100.75, CPI dovish tailwind), the bias is mildly bullish for a bounce but structural trend remains bearish. This is a counter-trend bounce trade, not a trend reversal.
Bias: Long (short-term, 1–2 day) | Confidence: 55/100 - Entry zone: ₹139,800–₹140,500 (MCX Aug fut) — on a dip from Monday's likely gap-up open - Stop-loss: ₹138,500 (below Friday's day low of ₹139,801) - Target 1: ₹142,000 (near 1-Hour SMA50/100 cluster) - Target 2: ₹143,500–₹144,000 (1-Day SMA20 at ₹143,945) - Risk per lot: ~₹2,500–₹3,500/10g = ~₹25,000–₹35,000 per 1kg lot (MCX Gold = 1kg = 100g… actually MCX Gold futures = 1kg = 100×10g, so ₹2,500/10g × 100 = ₹2,50,000 per lot. Adjust sizing accordingly.) - Reasoning: (1) COMEX gold rallied $26+ in weekend trade, likely to push MCX up ₹1,000–₹1,500 at open. (2) DXY at 100.75 — weak dollar supports gold. (3) CPI dovish surprise still being digested. (4) BUT: the 1-Day SMA20 at ₹143,945 is strong resistance; expect a fade at those levels. This is a bounce trade into resistance, not a new uptrend.
Bias: Cautiously long (narrow range) | Confidence: 40/100 - Entry zone: ₹215,000–₹216,500 (MCX Sep fut) — current levels - Stop-loss: ₹210,000 (below psychological support) - Target 1: ₹220,000 (near 1-Hour SMA50) - Target 2: ₹226,000 (1-Day SMA20, strong resistance) - Risk per lot: ~₹5,000–₹6,500/kg = ~₹1,50,000–₹1,95,000 per 30kg lot (MCX Silver = 30kg) - Reasoning: (1) Silver is deeply oversold (−48% from ATH, −16.6% below SMA50). (2) Bounce potential on weak dollar. (3) BUT: COMEX silver is up only +0.25% in weekend trade — nowhere near gold's bounce. The industrial demand narrative is weak (World Bank expects industrial silver demand to fall again in 2026). (4) The G/S ratio at 71.4 is NOT historically low — silver is not cheap against gold. No compelling reason to buy silver over gold here.
Given the conflicting macro forces (dovish CPI vs hawkish geopolitics) and the structural bearish trend: - Gold: 1–2 lots max (reduced size). Prefer a partial entry — test with 1 lot, add on confirmation. - Silver: 0–1 lot max, or skip entirely. The risk/reward is worse than gold. - Risk budget: Limit total MCX exposure to 2–3% of capital at risk per trade.
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran de-escalation (ceasefire/negotiations) | Bearish gold — risk-off premium evaporates, oil drops → Fed can ease → actually bullish long-term, but short-term spike in risk appetite drains gold | Moderate |
| US Retail Sales data beats high (releases this week) | Bearish gold — strong economy → Fed stays hawkish → dollar strengthens → gold breaks below $3,962 | Low-moderate |
| Oil spike above $100 (Strait of Hormuz disruption) | Bearish gold short-term — forces Fed to hike, crushing all commodities initially | Moderate |
| China paper gold halt (Jul 24) triggers COMEX squeeze | Bullish gold — could drive sharp rally as physical demand overwhelms paper | Moderate |
| Fed hints at rate cut at Jul 28–29 meeting | Bullish gold — major catalyst for reversal, could push $4,200+ | Low (Warsh Fed is hawkish) |
| Day | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 20 Jul | (No major US data scheduled) | Low |
| Tue 21 Jul | US Existing Home Sales (Jun) | Medium |
| Wed 22 Jul | US MBA Mortgage Applications | Low |
| Thu 23 Jul | US Jobless Claims, CB Leading Index | Medium |
| Fri 24 Jul | China paper gold trading halt effective | High — potential volatility catalyst |
| US Durable Goods Orders (Jun prelim) | Medium | |
| 28–29 Jul | FOMC Meeting (Fed rate decision) | Critical |
📌 Weekend Summary: Gold is attempting a short-term bounce from the $3,960–$4,000 zone, supported by a weak dollar (DXY 100.75) and dovish CPI (3.5%). But the structural trend is bearish (−21% from ATH, lower highs, below all daily MAs). This is a counter-trend bounce into resistance (1-Day SMA20 at ₹143,945 MCX), not a reversal. Silver is even weaker (−48% from ATH) and not worth chasing. Monday's approach: buy gold dips with tight stops, take profits into strength at ₹142,000+, and wait for the Fed meeting (Jul 28–29) for the next major directional catalyst.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and educational content, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves leveraged, high-risk instruments. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analysis to consider — the human alone owns the execution decision. Trade responsibly.