I now have all the data needed. Let me compile the full daily brief.
Sunday, July 19, 2026 — Covering last week's close & the week ahead
| Instrument | Price (INR) | 5d ∆ | 10d ∆ | 20d ∆ | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold MCX parity (₹/10g) | ₹1,24,212 | +1.4% | −2.3% | −2.1% | Local 5Y dataset (Jul 18) |
| Goldbees ETF (NSE) | ₹115.79 | −1.0% | — | −4.4% | Local dataset |
| MCX Gold domestic (₹/10g) | ~₹1,40,000–1,43,000 | — | — | — | Analysts, Moneycontrol Jul 17 |
| Silver MCX parity (₹/kg) | ₹1,73,464 | −1.8% | −8.5% | −12.7% | Local dataset (Jul 18) |
| Silverbees ETF (NSE) | ₹204.92 | −1.2% | — | −9.0% | Local dataset |
| USDINR | 96.28 | — | — | — | Local dataset (Jul 18) |
| COMEX Gold ($/oz) | $4,013.85 | +$26.55 Fri | — | −5.2% mo | Harvey Organ / TradingEconomics (Jul 17 close) |
| COMEX Silver ($/oz) | $56.06 | +$0.25 Fri | — | −15.3% mo | Harvey Organ / TradingEconomics (Jul 17 close) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 71.6 | rising | — | — | Calculated from parity rates |
| DXY | ~100.81 | — | — | — | FMT / FXStreet (Jul 15) |
Recency note: MCX was closed Saturday Jul 18. The last trading day was Friday Jul 17. All local-dataset figures reflect Jul 18 data (non-trading day, same as Jul 17 close). COMEX gold/silver figures are Friday Jul 17 close. DXY is from Wednesday Jul 15.
📉 US CPI June fell to 3.5% — softer than expected, released Jul 14. This initially cooled Fed rate-hike expectations and pushed the dollar lower (DXY to ~100.81). Source: Eastern Herald, FXStreet, FMT.
🔥 Middle East tensions escalating — Bloomberg (Jul 15–16) and OEDigital report that escalating conflict in the Middle East is pushing oil prices higher and rekindling inflation concerns. This creates a two-sided dynamic for gold: safe-haven demand on one hand, but Fed-rate-hike fears (to contain oil-driven inflation) on the other. Gold dropped 2% on Thursday Jul 16 precisely on this second channel.
📈 Gold bounced Friday — Gold closed up $26.55 (+0.7%) to $4,013.85 on Jul 17, recovering from the Thursday sell-off. Silver also bounced +$0.25 to $56.06. Source: Harvey Organ Blog, Fortune.
💰 CFTC: Speculators added to gold longs — For the week ending Jul 14, COMEX gold speculators raised net long positions by 4,294 contracts to 119,147. Source: Binance Square / CFTC data.
🏦 India gold ETFs saw inflows — AMFI data shows gold ETFs rebounded after May outflows; silver ETFs saw inflows of ₹4,286 crore in the latest period. However, lower silver prices pulled AUM down. Source: Moneycontrol.
🇨🇳 China gold ETFs had record outflows — Nearly RMB 15 billion ($2.2B) exited Chinese gold ETFs in June, the largest monthly outflow ever. But central-bank buying continues globally. Source: ScrapMonster.
🔮 JP Morgan maintains $6,000/oz gold target — JPM Research expects gold to push $6,000/oz by year-end 2026, with $6,300 possible in 2027. Source: JPMorgan.
Multi-year (5Y) backdrop: Unbroken bull market. From ₹43,761 (Jul 2020) → all-time high of ₹1,57,381 (Jan 29, 2026) → currently ₹1,24,212. Still +184% from 5 years ago, but −21% from the January 2026 peak.
Medium-term (2026 YTD): The year began with a massive rally to ₹1,57,381 by late January, followed by a grinding correction that has now lasted nearly 6 months. Gold has been making lower highs since February.
Near-term (last 2 weeks): - Currently trading below MA50 (₹1,31,398) by −5.5% - Right at MA20 (₹1,24,717) — neutral momentum - Last week's low was near ₹1,22,499 (Jul 13) - The bounce from that low to ₹1,24,692 (Jul 17) was unconvincing — only +1.8%
Key Levels (MCX domestic): - Support: ₹1,40,000 (psychological, held last week) → ₹1,39,300–1,38,700 (analyst zone, Bhaskar Live) - Resistance: ₹1,43,000–1,45,000 (recent highs) → ₹1,50,000 (psychologically significant) - Parity equivalents: Support ~₹1,22,000–1,22,500; Resistance ~₹1,27,000–1,27,500
Death cross noted: FXEmpire reported a death cross on daily gold charts on Jul 13 — a bearish structure when the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA.
Multi-year backdrop: Also a massive bull market: ₹47,625 (Jul 2020) → all-time high ₹3,38,545 (Jan 26, 2026) → current ₹1,73,464. But this is a −48.8% drawdown from the January high — essentially a 50% correction in 6 months. Still +264% from 5 years ago.
Medium-term: Silver's correction has been far more brutal than gold's. It has given back virtually all gains made since late 2024. The metal is trading near the 2026 low (₹1,73,424) — essentially at the bottom of this year's range.
Near-term: - Below MA50 (₹2,07,516) by −16.4% — deeply oversold - Below MA20 (₹1,80,928) by −4.1% - 10d return: −8.5%; 20d: −12.7% — accelerating downside - The ratio vs gold (71.6) is high, indicating silver is historically cheap relative to gold
Gold is in a corrective phase within a secular bull market. Silver is in a mini-bear within its secular bull. The gold/silver ratio at 71.6 is elevated (historical mean ~60–65), suggesting silver is undervalued relative to gold — but timing a reversion is risky while momentum remains negative.
Bias: Mildly bullish at support, but trend is still down from the Jan high.
Rationale: Gold held the ₹1,40,000 domestic level (≈₹1,22,000–1,22,500 parity) on Friday's bounce. The CPI miss and Middle East tensions provide a mixed but slightly supportive backdrop. The bounce from the Jul 13 low needs confirmation. JP Morgan's $6,000/oz target and CFTC speculators adding longs provide institutional tailwinds.
Entry zone: ₹1,40,000–1,40,500 domestic (≈₹1,22,000–1,22,500 parity) - Wait for price to hold above ₹1,40,000 again on Monday/Tuesday before entering
Stop-loss: Below ₹1,38,500 domestic (≈₹1,20,500 parity) — a break below this would invalidate the support
Targets: - T1: ₹1,43,000 (recent resistance) | Reward: ~₹2,500/10g - T2: ₹1,45,000 | Reward: ~₹4,500/10g - T3: ₹1,48,000–1,50,000 (if Middle East escalates)
Alternate plan (bias invalidated): If gold breaks below ₹1,38,500, it could accelerate toward ₹1,35,000. A short bias would activate below that level with a target of ₹1,32,000.
Sizing: 1–2% risk per trade. If using MCX futures (1 lot gold = 1 kg), a ₹1,500 SL = ₹1,500 risk per lot. For Goldbees ETF (NSE), accumulate in 3 tranches at support levels.
Bias: Mildly bullish at the 2026 low, but this is a contrarian call.
Rationale: Silver is extremely oversold (−48.8% from Jan high, −8.5% in 10 days, −16.4% below MA50). The gold/silver ratio at 71.6 is above the historical mean, suggesting silver is cheap. AMFI data shows Indian silver ETFs still attracting inflows. However, the trend is unambiguously down — this is a reversal trade, not a trend-following one.
Entry zone: ₹1,72,000–1,75,000 parity (≈spot at current) - Only enter if price shows a daily close above ₹1,75,000 with a bullish candle
Stop-loss: Below ₹1,68,000 parity (−3.2% from entry) — a new 2026 low
Targets: - T1: ₹1,85,000 | Reward: ~₹10,000–13,000/kg - T2: ₹2,00,000 | Reward: ~₹25,000/kg
Risk: This is trying to catch a falling knife. Silver has been making lower lows for 6 months. A break below ₹1,73,000 (the 2026 low) would open the door to ₹1,55,000–1,60,000.
Better approach: Wait for a decisive daily close above MA20 (₹1,80,928) as confirmation of a trend change before going long. Until then, stay in cash or accumulate Silverbees ETF in very small tranches.
Note: calendar items from standard weekly schedule; exact confirmations may shift.
| Metal | 5Y Trend | 2026 Trend | Near-Term | Bias This Week | Risk/Reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 🟢 Bull (+184%) | 🔴 Corrective (−21%) | 🟡 Neutral / Bouncing at support | Mildly Long >₹1,40k | Favourable at support |
| Silver | 🟢 Bull (+264%) | 🔴 Bear (−49%) | 🔴 Oversold, at 2026 low | Contrarian Long (high risk) | Unfavourable (trend is down) |
Key observation: Gold appears to be base-building around the ₹1,40,000 domestic level after 6 months of correction. The bull market is intact but needs a catalyst to re-accelerate. Silver's 50% collapse from January suggests deep distress — it will likely need gold to lead higher first before it can mount a recovery.
Best play for the week: Accumulate Goldbees ETF in tranches at ₹115–116 with a 2–3 month horizon. Silver is too risky to size into meaningfully until it shows a confirmed reversal.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. Trading MCX commodities is leveraged and high-risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading decisions and execution are solely yours. The analysis above is based on publicly available data as of Jul 19, 2026 (Sunday) — prices will differ when markets open Monday.